Brief No. 1
CESS-Cigány Economy Simulation System is an econometric model designed to measure the opportunity costs of educational denial affecting the Roma. This note describes the methodologies used to achieve two first steps in the establishment of a functional model:
Orders of magnitude
- the creation of population projections for Roma and non-Roma
- quantification of the shortfalls in Gross National Product associated with earning capacity decifits
Unfortunately following the introduction of legislation which does not require that the race of an individual be identified in statistics or on official forms use has been made of a principle of "declaration", that is, people declare what their race or ethnicity is. This is widely used by politicians to declare that they do not know the true numbers of Roma in their national populations. This appears to be a logical statement; it is not. All local communities know very well the breakdown in the community between Roma and non-Roma. The selection of rural Roma children for Special schools is proof enough that such identification is a continual process involving central and local governments. In any case, at the national level, very accurate surveys were completed before this legislation requiring declaration came into force. It is therefore possible to project population numbers fairly accurately because the growth rate of the Roma has been roughly constant for well over a century and is confirmed to be so by various historic surveys.
Life did not begin in 1989 when the former regime collapsed, what did begin was a massive move to remove transparency from the issue of Roma populations.
|Although the Romani population makes up 7.8% of the total population, the new generation of Hungarians born during 2006 is 28% Roma and 72% non-Roma...|
Having said that, the objective of the CESS is to start off by determining the order of magnitudes of relative population sizes and growth rates. Having determined the order of magnitude of Roma and non-Roma populations and their growth rates we can then apply various "overlay" analyses which help us determine the highest-likelihood location of the true figures. The highest-likelihood analysis will be described in another briefing note. This approach proved to be completely accurate in the case of the determination of Special school populations which we carried out based on ECRE field data collected in 2001-2003.
Historic Roma data
The historic trend in the growth in the size of any population as measured by the difference between birth rates and death rates. The historic growth rate for the Roma in Hungary is some 2% p.a. This was confirmed by the Hungarian Academy of Science data describing a detailed survey carried out in 1984 and published in 1989. See the box in annex. The sustained growth rate of 2% per annum has been maintained in the face of a death rates which vary around 16/1000.
|The 1986 generation of Hungarians was 20% Roma and this group began to enter the labour market in 2002...|
Historic National data (Roma plus non-Roma)
The national average death rate is some 13/1000 and the national average birth rate is some 10/1000. These national statistical averages are the weighted sum of the non-Roma birth rate (nRbr) and Roma birth rate (Rbr) and the weighted sum of the non-Roma death rate (nRdr) and Roma death rate (Rdr).
Therefore the first problem is to separate the two subsets of the population, Roma and non-Roma and quantify their respective birth and death rates.
National, Roma & non-Roma birth rates
The national Hungarian birth rate (nbr) is 10/1000. This is the weighted sum of the subset birth rates. Thus 10 = (nRbr x non-Roma population)/total national population + (Rbr x Roma population)/total national population
We know, for example, from forward projections (see annex) that in 2006 out of a total population of 10 million the Roma constituted some 780,000. Substituting these figures into the equation we end up with:
10 = nRbr(9,220,000)/10,000,000 + Rbr(780,000)/10,000,000
To sustain a 2% net annual population growth rate against a death rate of 16/1000 the Romani birth rate needs to have been 36/1000 (36/1000-16/1000=20/1000 = 2%). Substituting this figure into the remaining equation gives:
10 = nRbr(9,220,000)/10,000,000 + 36(780,000)/10,000,000
|Within a decade, some 25% of the Hungarian workforce will be Roma and by 2026, some 30% will be Roma... |
10 = nRbr(0.922) + 2.808
nRbr = (10 - 2.808)/0.922 = 7.8
So the initial estimates of the Roma and the non-Roma birth rates are 36/1000 and 7.8/1000.
National, Roma & non-Roma death rates
Death rates nRdr and Rdr can be calculated in the same way. The national average is some 13/1000 thus:
13 = nRdr(9,220,000)/10,000,000 + 16(780,000)/10,000,000
13 = nRdr(0.922) + 1.248
nRdr = (13 - 1.248)/0.922 = 12.75
So the initial estimates of the Roma and the non-Roma death rates are 16/1000 and 12.75/1000.
Relative population growth rates
Based on the figures isolated above the total Roma population, as we know is increasing at the rate of 2% p.a. On the other hand the total non-Roma population is descreasing at the rate of 10-12.75 = 2.75/1000, that is -0.275%/annum.
Because, currently, the non-Roma subset makes up roughly 92% of the population, the fall in population outweighs the overall positive contribution from the growth in the Roma population. For example for 2006 the drop in total population caused by the non-Roma subset is 9,220,000 x 0.00275 = -25,355 and against this can be set the gain from the Roma subset of 780,000 x 0.02 = 15,600. This results in an estimated drop in total population of 9,755. We know that the drop is more than this but the downward trend varies continuously as the birth and death rates vary. In reality the drop in population, related to variations on birth and death rates amongst the non-Roma subset can see annual drops vary from between 10,000 and up to 50,000.
|The education, training and skills of the Roma will determine the viability of the Hungarian economy both within Europe & the globalized economy...|
By manpower planning we refer to the process of providing adequate freedom to all to participate in the labour markets either to participate as employees, to run own businesses employing others or to work as an individual in some contractual or other money earning capacity.
The provision of an adequate freedom for each individual to be able to provide for a partner, constitute a family and ensure that offspring enjoy equal opportunities, is founded in an adequate basic education. A basic education helps individuals achieve useful capabilities in literacy, numeracy and expression as well as specific information and knowledge on a range of subjects.
Vocation and technical training
People with a basic education can ensure more freedom of choice in the labour market by completing vocational and technical training either in appropriate institutions or as apprentices learning on the job. However, in all cases an adequate basic education is an essential facilitator of easing communications within such training environments with individuals being able to complete a range of tasks based largely upon the benefits derived from their basic education (reading, writing, expression, numeracy, handling documents).
The labour market
The new entrants to the labour market, individuals who have recently left school or training establishments represent a constant flow of individuals.
|The Hungarian economy is already under-performing by some 8billion Euro/annum as a direct consequence of the high unemployment levels and low earning capacity of employed Roma...|
Capabilities and earning capacity
The performance of the economy depends on a workforce which having adequate skills and with experience capabilities to achieve a significant contribution in terms of value added. This is turn determines the earning capacity of the individuals.
Size and structure of workforce
Like the population in general the labour market has an entry rate (Lmer) (equivalent to the birth rate) and an retirement rate (Lmrr) associated with the point in time when an individual retires from active participation in the labour market (like the death rate). The size and structure of this flow is directly related to the birth rate of the subset to which the individual belongs.
Lmer - Labour market entry rates
The labour market entry rate relates directly back to the birth rates in each subset. Thus in 2006 the relative subset birth rates generate the following numbers of children:
Hungary 2006: Projected childbirths.
Relative contribution of Roma & non-Roma populations
|Population||Numbers||Births||% of total|
The important point to note is that although the Roma population in 2006 makes up just 7.8% of the total population, it currently contributes some 28% of Hungary's new generation who will reach school age within 5 years time and to begin entering the labour market within 16 years.
This is illustrated in the diagram on the right. The section labelled "A" shows children born in 2006 would enter school at around 5-6 years and the labour market (Lme) by 16 years of their birth. So those born in 2006 will begin to enter the labout market in 2022 (2006+16).
By backward projection some 20 years it is possible to calculate the percentage of Roma who will have entered the labour market 4 years ago (2002) (1986+16). Thus in 1986, the contribution of Roma to the new generation was 20% and this entry is shown in the section labelled "B" in the diagram on the right.
In 10 years time, 2016, the new generation which is Roma will be some 32%, entering the labour market in 2032.
A more complete sequence of the rising percentage of Roma in the labour market entry is shown below.
Hungarian Labour Market Entry - 1986 through 2046
Partial & Stepped Sequence at 10 year intervals
Romani participation rises from 20% to 35%
This document is work in progress.
©2006, Seel-Telesis®, RomaniWorld & ECRE.
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The Cigány population in Hungary 1900-2004|
The Hungarian Academy of Sciences, in 1989 published some statistics on Roma populations in Hungary based on work by county council Gypsy co-ordination committees. This work was undertaken between 1984 and 1987. The importance of this work derives from the fact that the data collected did not rely upon self-declaration by the public as to their ethnicity but rather on a statistical survey to estimate actual numbers carried out by people with local knowledge.
At that time it was estimated that there were some 420,000 Roma.
Growth in population
The Academy is on record as noting that this population represented a seven fold increase during the previous century (100 years). This confirms estimates by the European Committee on Romani Emancipation of a cumulative population growth rate of some 2% p.a. and it ties in with figures of around 60,000-70,000 Gypsies within the current Hungarian boundaries estimated by various source at the end of the previous century mentioned by other authors.
Over 75% of the Hungarian Roma population is Romungro. The Romungro are the Roma who have been settled in Hungary for in excess of 600 years and they have a significant component who are of mixed decent. Their appearance varies from that of mainstream Hungarian, including blue eyes and light hair to more typical darker skin, brown eyes and black hair. There is therefore always an under estimation of the numbers of Romungro as a result of observers not realising that many they consider to be mainstream are in fact Romungro. As a result of this fact there is a persistent error in Hungarian statistics related to the fact that a percentage of Romungro do not have typical Cigány features. As a result, even survey personnel are unaware of their being Cigány. This leads to underestimation of true figures by a factor of something like 20%
If a one time adjustment is made for this under-estimation then the 1984 population figure can be established at around 504,000.
By projecting this population forward using the same long term growth rate, the population for 2004 is projected to be some 749,000 (750,000). Updating this to 2006 gives a figure of 780,000.
As can be seen clearly from the map, the Cigány society is largely rural. Budapest and urban centres tend to have very low concentrations of Cigány and the South Centre and the North West almost have no Cigány at all.
Most urban centres, including Budapest, tend to have a percentage of Cigány of around 5.5%-7.75% . On the other hand in the areas of concentration, the Cigány make up around 30% of the population in many rural areas and, in some areas, are some 50% of the population. In basic terms, the overal1 social culture of urban life in Hungary is in marked contrast to rural village settings in terms of the ethnic mixture.
A declining population growth rate of non-Cigány or mainstream (currently negative) and the movement of younger non-Cigány from rural regions is resulting in an increasing percentage of rural society and village dwellers being made up of Cigány.
SEEL Report: 2003 (105) Series: Decision analysis in economic development
1: This project is supported by ECRE-European Committee on Romani Emancipation